Some make their picks based on team colors, others on whether one mascot could beat up the other. Here are some more reasonable tactics.
1. Belief in the 12-vs-5 magic. It’s the most common upset, but only half of the No. 12s make it to the second weekend. Pick beyond round 1 at your risk.
2. Belief in the First Four. These pre-tournament matchups get little attention, but four have reached the sweet 16. One (VCU) made the final four.
3. No belief in a 30-win team. It’s a lofty number. But only two 30-win teams, Kansas in 2008 and Kentucky in 2012, have won the national championship.